Tuesday, March 21, 2006

PEAK OIL IS OVER! We found more oil!

This has been mercilessly stolen from Pastpeak.com without permission.

Mexico's President Vicente Fox has announced the discovery of a significant new deep-water oil field in the Gulf of Mexico. AP:

President Vicente Fox climbed aboard a drilling platform in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday to formally announce a new deep-water oil discovery [called Noxal] he said could eventually yield 10 billion barrels of crude oil. [...]

Government estimates say the find could exceed reserves at the giant offshore field Cantarell, Mexico's largest oil field, which has seen its production decline but is still expected to yield 1.9 million barrels a day this year.

Luis Ramirez, chief executive of Mexico's government-run oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, said Noxal is the fourth deep-water well explored by Pemex.

Ramirez said that while production tests will be conducted in coming weeks, "evidence found is sufficient to infer potential reserves to be discovered that could reach 10 billion barrels of crude oil equivalent."

"This number, compared with annual production of 1.6 billion barrels of crude, shows its strategic importance," Ramirez said, adding that crude oil production at Noxal likely won't begin for eight to 10 years. [Emphasis added]

10 billion barrels is a significant find, but here are some things to bear in mind:

  • 10 billion barrels is being cited as a best-case number. It remains to be seen if 10 billion barrels can actually be recovered.

  • The world currently uses 10 billion barrels of oil every four months.

  • Production at Noxal is 8-10 years away. By that time, other Mexican production will have declined significantly. As we saw a month ago, Mexico's Cantarell field, the world's second largest producer, is facing precipitous decline. Noxal will simply plug part of the hole left by declines in other fields.

  • According to an industry insider quoted at The Oil Drum, the new find "is supposed to be nearly as big as Cantarell, but is a lot heavier." That's what we would expect in a peak oil world: the light, sweet crude has mostly all been discovered. Now we're on to the harder-to-find, harder-to-produce, harder-to-refine oil.

  • All that being said, this discovery may indicate that Mexico's deep-water exploration has been spottier than previously thought. It's possible they'll find more. Which is good news on the peak oil front (though not wildly good news — as noted above, it just postpones peak by a few months).

    But every new find is bad news on the global warming front, and that is likely to turn out to be the bigger problem in the long run. Every new find is that much more carbon that will be pumped into the atmosphere, and it's that much longer that people will delay doing what has to be done to reduce carbon emissions and start to get a handle on the accelerating rate of increase in atmospheric CO2.

    People tend to follow the path of least resistance. As long as we've got relatively cheap oil, the path of least resistance will be to continue to burn it.

    So there you have it! A new four month supply 10 years from now ends all arguements. The next time you tell someone that we're running out of oil and they say, "someone will find more," you can tell them. Yup! We just found another 4 month supply that'll only take 10 years to tap! CRANK UP THE SUV!!!!

    -LORD gotwa

    Tuesday, March 14, 2006

    I say it best when I say nothing at all...

    Saturday, March 11, 2006

    I tip my hat to the new constitution

    Recent developments have lead me to realize that we need to re-vamp our bill of rights to more accurately reflect the behavior of the American people and their government.

    THE BILL OF RIGHTS (Amendments 1-10 of the Constitution)
    The Conventions of a number of the States[Special Interest Groups] having, at the time of adopting[Raping] the Constitution, expressed a desire, in order to prevent misconstruction or abuse of its powers, that further declaratory and restrictive clauses should be added, and as extending the ground of public confidence in[Slavery to] the Government will best insure the beneficent ends of its institution;
    Resolved, by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America, in Congress assembled, two-thirds of both Houses concurring,[in a secret cabinet meeting] that the following articles be proposed to the Legislatures of the several States[immediately and illegally added], as amendments to the Constitution of the United States; all or any of which articles, when ratified by three-fourths of the said Legislatures, to be valid to all intents and purposes as part of the said Constitution, namely:

    Amendment I

    Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances. [Furthermore, the people shall be protected by the government against anything a person may find offensive. This includes but is not limited to: Rascism, Religion, Sexism, Common Courtessy, Patriotism, Life in General, The French, Nakedness, Money or Wealth, Crime, Nationalism, Darwinism, the word "Ism."]

    Amendment II

    A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state[Federal Government], the right of the people [Federal Government] to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed [Much].

    Amendment III

    No soldier shall, in time of peace be quartered in any house, without the consent of the owner, nor in time of war, but in a manner to be prescribed by law [John Ashcroft].

    Amendment IV

    The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.

    Amendment V

    No [Any] person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a grand jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the militia, when in actual service in time of war or public danger; nor shall any person be subject for the same offense to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb; nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.

    Amendment VI
    In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial, by an impartial jury of the state and district wherein the crime shall have been committed, which district shall have been previously ascertained by law, and to be informed of the nature and cause of the accusation; to be confronted with the witnesses against him; to have compulsory process for obtaining witnesses in his favor, and to have the assistance of counsel for his defense. [Unless you are a citizen of a soverign state that we've chosen to invade. In that case we'll forcibly remove you from your own country, lock you up, and throw away the key you terrorist bastard.]

    Amendment VII
    In suits at common law, where the value in controversy shall exceed twenty dollars[The Ratings of the Current Story], the right of trial by jury[Public Opinion] shall be preserved, and no fact tried by a jury[Unprincipled Media Source], shall be otherwise reexamined in any court of the United States, than according to the rules of the common law[Sensationalist Yellow Jounalist Media].

    Amendment VIII
    Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments inflicted.[Unless you are a citizen of a soverign state that we've chosen to invade. In that case we'll forcibly remove you from your own country, lock you up, and throw away the key you terrorist bastard.]

    Amendment IX
    The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.[Unless you are a citizen of a soverign state that we've chosen to invade. In that case we'll forcibly remove you from your own country, lock you up, and throw away the key you terrorist bastard.]

    Amendment X
    The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are [now] reserved to the states respectively, or to the people[George W Bush].